Arctic News

Friday, August 8, 2025

Extreme Heat Risk

The above image, adapted from NOAA National Weather Service, shows extreme heat risk for multiple areas in the U.S. for August 9, 2025, with a location near Imperial, California highlighted with details.
Details for the forecast for this location are:

- Wet bulb globe temperature: 93°F or 34°C
- Temperature: 102°F or 39°C
- Apparent Temperature: 117°F or 47°C
- Dew Point: 77°F or 25°C
- Relative Humidity: 46%
- Forecast for: August 9, 2025 21:00 UTC

On the above image, this extreme risk area is located at a latitude of 33.22° North. What is remarkable is that on the map there is also a high risk area that extends all the way from the southern border of the U.S. with Mexico to the northern border of the U.S. with Canada, with extreme risk areas showing up at latitudes North higher than for Toronto, Canada.

The image below, again adapted from NOAA National Weather Service, shows a wet bulb globe temperature forecast for August 11, 2025, with an extreme heat warning highlighted (inset) for a location near Imperial, California.

Details for the forecast for this location are:

- Wet bulb globe temperature: 95°F or 35°C
- Temperature: 109°F or 43°C
- Apparent Temperature: 121°F or 49°C
- Dew Point: 73°F or 23°C
- Relative Humidity: 32%
- Forecast for: August 11, 2025 21:00 UTC

[ from earlier post ]

The image below, adapted from the heat risk page at the NOAA National Weather Service, shows a forecast for August 9, 2025, updated 10.49 AM EST. The map shows high and extreme risk areas, including an extreme risk area centered around Grand Rapid, Michigan, which is located at a latitude of about 43° North.

The image below shows a heat stress forecast for August 11, 2025, with areas with extreme heat risk showing up in Michigan, while areas with major heat risk are showing up at latitudes as high as in Maine.

The images illustrate that extreme weather events that come with very high, even fatal heat stress risk conditions can now increasingly occur almost anywhere in the U.S.

The image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows a three-day forecast of maximum temperatures run on August 8, 2025.

The image below, also adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows the one-day average sea surface temperature anomaly (from 1971-2000) for August 7, 2025.

Speeding up Arctic sea ice demise

[ click on images to enlarge ]

The above image shows very high sea surface temperature anomalies around and inside the Arctic Ocean. These anomalies are getting higher by the day, due to Earth Energy Imbalance and the change of seasons.

The image on the right, from an earlier post, illustrates the huge amounts of heat that have accumulated in the ocean, showing equivalent ocean heat content on August 5, 2025.

The image on the right underneath shows North Atlantic sea surface temperatures as high as 32.8°C on August 5, 2025.

[ from earlier post, click to enlarge ]

The image shows heat moving up along the path of the Gulf Stream toward the Arctic, threatening to accelerate loss of sea ice and permafrost.

Arctic sea ice also declines due to the sunlight heating up the sea ice. Where sea ice disappears, the water heats up rapidly. Arctic sea ice decline comes with feedbacks such as the albedo feedback, i.e. less sunlight getting reflected by sea ice means more heat is getting absorbed, further accelerating the temperature rise. More algae and soot settling on the sea ice can further contribute to albedo loss.

There are also buffers and once they are overwhelmed or disappear, the temperature rise will speed up rapidly. One example is the latent heat buffer. Arctic sea ice is getting thinner over the years, so the amount of heat that can be absorbed in the process of melting is getting smaller over time.

As the latent heat buffer decreases, the heat that was previously absorbed by the phase change from ice to water, will therefore instead get absorbed by the water, further raising the temperature of the water. As the sea ice thickness decreases over the years, less incoming ocean heat can therefore be consumed by melting the remaining sea ice.

More freshwater temporarily slows down melting of Arctic sea ice

[ Bering Strait ]

Furthermore, Arctic sea ice decline is due to heat that is moving with the flow of rivers into the Arctic Ocean. The image on the right shows sea surface temperature as high as 20.3°C in the Bering Strait on August 7, 2025.

Extreme weather events are getting more severe and are occurring more frequently, including heatwaves and thunderstorms on land that can extend over the Arctic Ocean. Rain falling on sea ice can speed up its demise. Heatwaves and storms over land can furthermore heat up the water of rivers strongly, thus increasing the heat flowing into the Arctic Ocean.

Also, more evaporation of sea water takes place over the North Atlantic, with more precipitation falling further down the track of the Gulf Stream and its extension north. This also adds more freshwater in the Arctic.

Water from melting sea ice, from rivers and from precipitation is all freshwater, i.e. it contains no salt. The increase in freshwater has created a temporary slowdown in the decline of the sea ice, a buffer of 2°C (as depicted by the image below on the right).

Freshwater buffer looks set to be overwhelmed soon

[ Saltier water, less sea ice, from earlier post ]

The higher the water's salt content, the lower its melting point. Seawater typically has a salinity of about 3.5% (35 grams of salt per liter of water).

Sea ice starts melting when the temperature rises to about -2°C (28.4°F). By contrast, freshwater remains frozen as long as the temperature remains below 0°C (32°F).

This slowdown in the melting of Arctic sea ice that results from the increase in freshwater is temporary. Given the speed at which the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean keeps rising, this temporary slowdown looks set to be overwhelmed soon and rapid melting of sea ice looks set to return with a vengeance.

The above image shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 10, 2025.

Arctic and Antarctic - two different situations

The image below, by Eliot Jacobson, illustrates the rise of precipitable water (total column) over the years.

Over the past two months (June-July 2025), the temperature over the Arctic Ocean has been slightly lower than 1951-1980, as illustrated by the image below. By contrast, areas with very high anomalies are visible between 60°S and 90°S. What's happening?

The image below shows that the precipitable water anomaly can be very high at both the North Pole and the South Pole. The image depicts the situation on August 9, 2025 18Z.

In the Northern Hemisphere, water evaporates from the sea surface of the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Prevailing winds carry much water vapor in the direction of the Arctic. Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean freshens the surface, giving the sea ice a buffer that temporarily slows down the melting of the sea ice. Similarly, much of the precipitation over land is carried by rivers into the Arctic Ocean, also freshening the surface of the Arctic Ocean. And of course, heavy melting of Arctic sea ice in June and July 2025 has added further freshwater to the surface of the Arctic Ocean.

In the Southern Hemisphere, water evaporates from the Southern Ocean and part of it falls on the Antarctic ice sheet, thickening the snow layer. As a result, the Southern Ocean surface is getting more salty. As discussed in an earlier post, saltier surface waters sink more readily, allowing heat from the deep to rise, which can melt Antarctic sea ice from below, even during winter, making it harder for ice to reform. This vertical circulation also draws up more salt from deeper layers, reinforcing the cycle.

In conclusion, geographic differences result in different precipitation outcomes and this in turn causes salinity differences that are behind these temperature anomaly differences.

The slowdown in the melting of Arctic sea ice that results from the increase in freshwater is temporary. Given the speed at which the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean keeps rising, this temporary slowdown looks set to be overwhelmed soon and rapid melting of sea ice looks set to return with a vengeance.

By contrast, the dramatic decrease in sea ice around Antarctica looks set to continue long-term, as a feedback that is amplified by albedo loss, lower emissivity, loss of the sea ice's latent heat buffer, ocean current changes and salinity changes.

The net result is illustrated by the image below, showing that the global sea ice area anomaly was 2.69 million km² below the 1981-2010 mean on August 9, 2025, a standard deviation of -5.22σ from 1981-2010.

What makes the dire state of the sea ice even more significant is that there currently are no El Niño conditions. The ENSO outlook favors borderline La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2025-2026, as discussed in a recent post.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), National Weather Service
https://digital.weather.gov

• NOAA - heat risk graphics
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/graphics

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• Heat Stress in the US
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2025/07/heat-stress-in-the-us.html

• High feels like temperature forecast (2024)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/high-feels-like-temperature-forecast.html

• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Tipping Point (2023)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html

• University of Miami - Rosenstiel School - North Atlantic OHC
https://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/weba/atlantic.php

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• Eliot Jacobson - Total Column Precipitable Water 1943 through July 2025
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=122244827390164489

• Kevin Pluck - sea ice visuals
https://seaice.visuals.earth

• Transforming Society
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html

• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

• Climate Emergency Declaration
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climate-emergency-declaration.html

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Extreme weather gets more extreme

More than 43,000 homes lose power as Storm Floris brings gusts of up to 82 mph, says a BBC report of August 4, 2025.

[ click on images to enlarge ]

As the temperature rise hits the Arctic harder than elsewhere in the world, the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator narrows, which slows down the jet stream and distorts its path, making the jet stream meander more.

As the jet stream slows down, distortion can cause parts of the jet stream at times to move faster. In the above image on the left, the polar jet stream and the subtropical jet stream have merged over the Atlantic Ocean, reaching speeds as high as 302 km/h or 187 mph over the North Sea on August 5, 2025 01:00 UTC (green circle on above image left).

[ click on images to enlarge ]

Furthermore, as temperatures rise and oceans heat up, the increased energy can at times strongly speed up ocean currents and winds.

The above image shows sea surface temperatures as high as 32.7°C or 90.0°F, recorded south of Florida on August 3, 2025 12:00 UTC (at the green circle). The above image also shows the path of the Jet Stream (right) matching the path of the Gulf Stream (left), thus strengthening and speeding up the Gulf Stream and its extension North over the Atlantic Ocean and to the Arctic Ocean.

The image on the right shows North Atlantic sea surface temperatures as high as 32.8°C on August 5, 2025, and the image on the right underneath illustrates the huge amounts of heat that have accumulated in the ocean, showing equivalent ocean heat content on August 5, 2025.

Heat is moving up along the path of the Gulf Stream toward the Arctic, threatening to accelerate loss of sea ice and permafrost.

As temperatures rise, sea ice decline accelerates due to feedbacks such as the albedo feedback, i.e. less sunlight getting reflected by sea ice means more heat gets absorbed, further accelerating the temperature rise.

The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 7, 2025.

As illustrated by the image below, global sea ice extent was 21.89 million km² on August 5, 2025, a deviation of -4.71σ.

There are also tipping points, e.g. as sea ice volume declines over the years, the buffer disappears that previously consumed huge amounts of ocean heat in the process of melting the ice.

Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on August 6, 2025, as it has been for more than a year, as illustrated by the image below.

[ NOAA ENSO outlook ]

What makes the dire state of the sea ice even more significant is that there currently are no El Niño conditions. As illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA, the ENSO outlook (CFSv2 ensemble mean, black dashed line) favors borderline La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2025-2026.

The temperature rise is accelerating and the rise could accelerate even more due to such feedbacks, especially during an El Niño and due to further reduction of the aerosol masking effect, two developments that could rapidly speed up existing feedbacks and trigger new feedbacks.

One of the most dangerous feedbacks is methane erupting from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. The image below shows hourly methane average recorded at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North.

The image below shows that the degree to which sulfate aerosols scatter and absorb light was as high as 4.500 τ on August 5, 2025, at 04:00 UTC at the location marked by the green circle.

[ sulfates contribute to the aerosol masking effect ]

The aerosol masking effect may be stronger than the IPCC's estimate, which would mean that the total warming due to people-caused emissions + feedbacks is higher. A 2022 study concludes that when ammonia, nitric acid and sulfuric acid are present together, they contribute strongly to the formation of cirrus clouds. Once released in the upper troposphere, ammonia can form particles with nitric acid, which is abundantly produced by lightning. As described in an earlier post, more burning of biomass and more extreme weather events such as forest fires and lightning can come with huge releases of gases and aerosols. Another earlier post shows how forest fires can come with high releases of sulfur dioxide, raising suspicions that forest fires can revolatilize sulfur emitted over decades from coal-fired power plants and settled on forest soil.

Sadly, the IPCC keeps downplaying the potential impact of feedbacks such as changes to ocean currents, wind patterns, clouds and water vapor, and loss of sea ice and permafrost, thus failing to warn people about a near-future in which temperatures could rise strongly due to such feedbacks, especially during an El Niño, and due to further reduction of the aerosol masking effect, developments that could rapidly speed up existing feedbacks and trigger new feedbacks, resulting in more extreme weather events striking with a ferocity, frequency and ubiquity that keeps increasing at an accelerating pace.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

Links

• More than 43,000 homes lose power as Storm Floris brings gusts of up to 82 mph - BBC August 4, 2025

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c9vdm9v4349t

discussed on Facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10163059070999679

• Nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net

• NOAA - The Jet Stream

https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/global/jet-stream

• University of Miami - Rosenstiel School - North Atlantic OHC

https://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/weba/atlantic.php

• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/start

• NOAA - flask and station methane measurements
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/index.php

• Synergistic HNO3 H2SO4 NH3 upper tropospheric particle formation - by Mingyi Wang et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04605-4
discussed on facebook at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160005189729679

Saturday, July 26, 2025

Heat Stress in the US

Wet bulb globe temperatures as high as 93°F or 34°C are forecast for July 28, 2025 18:00 UTC.

[ Wet bulb globe temperature forecast ]

The above image, adapted from NOAA National Weather Service, shows extreme heat stress for a large part of the U.S. (inset), with a location in Florida highlighted on the main image.

The forecast for this location is:

[ Extreme heat stress ]

- Wet bulb globe temperature : 93°F or 34°C
- Temperature : 100°F or 38°C
- Apparent Temperature : 116°F or 47°C
- Dew Point : 77°F or 25°C
- Relative Humidity : 50%
- Forecast for : July 28, 2025 18:00 UTC

The image on the right is a same-day forecast for July 28, 2025 18:00 UTC, showing wet bulb globe temperatures as high as 93°F forecast for eight locations on the US East Coast (North and South Carolina and top part of Georgia).

Heat stress

Heat stress is the leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States, as illustrated by the image below (credit: National Weather Service).

Numbers of heat fatalities may be conservative. Research finds that where heat is being listed as an official cause of death, this likely underestimates the full toll of these events. Extreme heat can trigger heart attacks and strokes. In addition, some heart disease risk factors, such as diabetes—as well as heart medications, such as diuretics and beta blockers—can affect a person’s ability to regulate their body temperature and make it difficult to handle extreme heat. The study finds that extreme heat accounted for about 600-700 additional deaths from cardiovascular disease annually. A study estimates that extreme heat accounted for 12,000 premature deaths in the contiguous U.S. from 2000 to 2010, and an analysis calculates that the summer 2022 heatwave killed 61,000 people in Europe alone.

Wet-bulb temperature

The human body can cool itself by sweating and the stronger the wind, the more one can cool off by sweating. As temperatures and humidity levels keep rising, a threshold can be reached where the wind factor no longer matters, in the sense that wind can no longer provide cooling. This physiological limit was long described as a 35°C wet-bulb temperature. i.e. once the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C, one can no longer lose heat by perspiration, even in strong wind, but instead the human body will start gaining heat from the air beyond a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C.

Accordingly, a 35°C wet-bulb temperature (equal to 95°F at 100% humidity or 115°F at 50% humidity) was long seen as the theoretical limit, the maximum a human could endure. A 2020 study (by Raymond et al.) warns that this limit could be regularly exceeded with a temperature rise of less than 2.5°C (compared to pre-industrial). A 2022 study (by Vecellio et al.) finds that the actual limit is lower — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% humidity — even for young, healthy subjects. The temperature for older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, is likely even lower. In practice the limit will typically be lower and depending on circumstances could be as low as a wet-bulb temperature of 25°C.

High temperatures

The image below shows an image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, with maximum temperatures forecast as high as 109°F for the three days from July 26, 2025.

[ maximum three-day temperature forecast ]

The image below is adapted from NOAA.

[ Maximum daily heat index forecast ]

A 96°F or 36°C temperature is forecast for a location near Jackson, Mississippi, US, for July 30, 2025, 18:00 UTC. At a relative humidity of 64%, this corresponds with a wet bulb globe temperature of 94°F or 34°C and a 'feels like' temperature of 121°F or 49°C, as illustrated by the image below.

A 102°F or 39°C temperature is forecast for a location near Texarkana, Arkansas, US, for July 31, 2025, 18:00 UTC. At a relative humidity of 47%, this corresponds with a wet bulb globe temperature of 94°F or 34°C and a 'feels like' temperature of 119°F or 48°C, as illustrated by the image below.

A 116°F or 47°C temperature is forecast for a location at Needles, California, US, for August 7, 2025, 00:00 UTC. At a relative humidity of 18%, this corresponds with a wet bulb globe temperature of 93°F or 34°C and a 'feels like' temperature of 121°F or 49°C, as illustrated by the image below.

The above forecasts illustrate the huge difference that the relative humidity percentage can make.

Links

• NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), National Weather Service
https://digital.weather.gov

• NOAA - heat risk graphics
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/graphics

• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org

• NOAA Weather Prediction Center, Day 3-7 Heat Index Forecast
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatindex/heatindex.php

• High feels like temperature forecast (2024)

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/08/high-feels-like-temperature-forecast.html

• Wet Bulb Globe Temperature Tipping Point (2023)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html

Saturday, July 12, 2025

Will humans go extinct soon?

The image below shows the June 2025 temperature anomaly versus 1951-1980, using ERA5 data.

[ June 2025 temperature anomaly, click on images to enlarge ]

[ from earlier post, click to enlarge ]

The above image shows relatively low anomalies over the Arctic Ocean, with a relatively cool area persisting in the North Atlantic, south of Greenland. This appears to reflect heavy melting, slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and strong evaporation followed by more rainfall further down the track of the Gulf Stream, as illustrated by the image on the right.

The above image also shows high anomalies over parts of Antarctica and Antarctic sea ice. This appears to reflect changes to the Southern Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC).

Rising temperatures result in a loss of carbon storage, concludes a recent study led by Thomas Werner into marine heatwaves.

[ marine heatwave in North Pacific ]

The image on the right shows that the sea surface temperature was as much as 7.5°C (13.4°F) higher than 1981-2011 on July 16, 2025, 12:00 UTC, at the location marked by the green circle, reflecting a strong marine heatwave in the North Pacific. The image also shows a distorted Jet Stream (at 250 hPa).

[ image from: 10°C or 18°F warmer by 2021? ]

Covering more than 70% of Earth’s surface, our global ocean has absorbed 90% of the warming that has occurred in recent decades due to increasing greenhouse gases, and the top few meters of the ocean store as much heat as Earth's entire atmosphere, as described by a NASA post.

A small reduction in the 90% uptake of heat by oceans could result in a huge rise in the global air temperature, and studies warn about changes that are occurring in the AMOC and SMOC, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. Such feedbacks could strike hard very rapidly, i.e. as fast feedbacks.

The IPCC (AR6 WG1 SPM page 11) uses an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 3°C, but James Hansen says fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is 4.8°C and equilibrium global warming for today’s amount of greenhouse gases (4.1 W/m²) is 10°C, which includes a 2°C rise that would eventuate by the falling away of the aerosols that currently mask the temperature rise.

A 2024 study led by Judd finds that climate sensitivity has historically been about 8°C.

[ Temperature rise vs 1901-2000 (ClimateReanalyzer) and vs 1850-1900 (IPCC, inset left) ]

The IPCC appears to be downplaying the temperature rise in multiple ways, including by using linear trends, a late baseline and a low climate sensitivity, to give the false impression that polluters could continue to pollute for decades to come.

The above images illustrate what the world would look like under a CMIP6 SSP5-8.5 scenario by February 2100, compared to 1891-1910. Obviously, such a rise would devastate sea ice and permafrost, triggering and accelerating numerous feedbacks, resulting in widespread forest fires and releases of greenhouse gases.

The 36-month running average for albedo (reflectivity) for May 2025 is down to a record low of 28.711%, as illustrated by the above Eliot Jacobson image.

The 36-month running mean for the Earth energy imbalance grew in May 2025 to 11.36 Hiroshimas per second. That's roughly 980,000 Hiroshimas per day in planetary warming, adds Eliot Jacobson.

As said, the IPCC keeps downplaying the potential impact of feedbacks such as changes to ocean currents, wind patterns, clouds and water vapor, and loss of sea ice and permafrost, thus failing to warn people about a near-future in which temperatures could rise strongly due to such feedbacks, especially during an El Niño, and due to further reduction of the aerosol masking effect, developments that could rapidly speed up existing feedbacks and trigger new feedbacks, resulting in more extreme weather events striking with a ferocity, frequency and ubiquity that keeps increasing at an accelerating pace.

[ NOAA ENSO outlook ]

The updated ENSO outlook (CFSv2 ensemble mean, black dashed line, image on the right, adapted from NOAA) favors borderline La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2025-2026.

The image below illustrates the outlook of borderline La Niña for the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2025-2026. On July 29, 2025, the average temperature in Niño 3.4, an area in the Pacific that is indicative for El Niño development (inset), had fallen to 26.7°C, an anomaly of -0.35°C from 1991-2020.

The current ENSO conditions make it even more significant that on July 14, 2025, the global temperature was 16.86°C, i.e. higher than the temperature was in 2023 or 2024 on this day, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer.

The earlier image below shows a preliminary 16.85°C that was later upgraded to 16.86°C (final). The point is that this is a record high for that day and 0.3°C below the highest daily temperature on record (17.16°C) that was reached on July 22, 2024 (image adapted from Copernicus).

The image below shows monthly temperature anomalies through June 2025, based on ERA5 anomalies vs 1951-1980 from Jan 2014-June 2025 (red circles).

In the above image, data are adjusted by 1°C to reflect a pre-industrial base (black circles). Cubic trends are added to show that 3°C could be crossed late 2028 (red) or early 2027 (black).

The image below shows surface air temperature anomalies April 1, 2023, through July 14, 2025 (final), with a red trend added that warns about a potentially huge temperature rise later in 2025.

Furthermore, sea surface temperatures are on the rise again. The image below shows the global sea surface temperature through July 20, 2025 (60°S–60°N, 0–360°E).

How much could temperatures rise? The image below is a combination image. The top image shows a trend based on annual sea surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere through 2022. The bottom image shows a trend based on annual sea surface temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere through 2023. The trend in the bottom image shows an even steeper rise than the trend in the top image. This shows that a polynomial trend can sometimes be a good indicator of the rise to come.

The current ENSO conditions also make it even more significant that the global sea ice area anomaly was 2.56 million km² below the 1981-2010 mean on July 30, 2025, a standard deviation of -4.33σ from 1981-2010.

Global sea ice extent was 21.92 million km² on July 31, 2025, a deviation of -4.88σ, as illustrated by the image below.

Arctic sea ice volume was at a record daily low on August 3, 2025, as it has been for more than a year, as illustrated by the image below.

The image below shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 3, 2025.

Seafloor methane

As the temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean rises, more ocean heat can penetrate sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which can destabilize methane hydrates contained in these sediments and cause eruptions of huge amounts of methane from the hydrates and from free gas kept underneath these hydrates.

The image below shows that methane concentrations as high as 2535 parts per billion (ppb) were recorded at a pressure level of 695.1 mb by the NOAA 20 satellite on July 30, 2025 AM. High concentrations of methane show up at latitudes higher than 30°N.

The image below shows hourly methane measurements taken at the Barrow Atmospheric Baseline Observatory (BRW), a NOAA facility located near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, at 71.32 degrees North.

The image below repeats the IPCC's response, or rather its failure to respond.

A 3°C rise constitutes an important threshold, since humans will likely go extinct with such a rise. As illustrated by the image below, we may already be more than 2°C above pre-industrial and face a potentially huge temperature rise over the next few years.

[ from the post When will humans go extinct? ]

[ from: When Will We Die? ]

Recent research led by David Fastivich finds that, historically, vegetation responded at timescales from hundreds to tens of thousands of years, but not at timescales shorter than about 150 years. It takes centuries for tree populations to adapt - far too slow to keep pace with today’s rapidly warming world.

Note that vegetation depends on the presence of a lot of things including healthy soil, microbes, moisture, nutrients and habitat.

A 2018 study by Strona & Bradshaw indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise (see box on the right). Humans, who depend on a lot of other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C, as discussed in the earlier post When Will We Die?

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.